When Product Development Is Driven by Hype, Focus on Frameworks

The last few years have been “driven by a cluster of tech mega-cap stocks,” with artificial intelligence (AI) at the center of that drive. But this is not the first time technology has promised to transform the business world.

AI, digital transformation, cloud, cybersecurity, and green sustainable technology, are just some of the key trends that have emerged in recent years. Together with the remote working culture that has taken hold during the last few years, these factors are generating business value and delivering for consumers on a daily basis.

And, along the way, companies have developed methodologies to interpret the drivers of this tech hype. But, the big question is, who does the interpreting? It’s important that product managers are at the helm when new technology trends appear, as they’re the ones who know how to utilize the right frameworks and ensure that the right questions are being asked at each stage of the product lifecycle.

With this recent focus on the emergence of new technology trends and product offerings, it’s vital to consider how these can be best implemented and how they will affect day-to-day business.

The hype surrounding new technology

Currently, it’s difficult to avoid the hype and impact of artificial intelligence. This technology has begun a new arms race, with tech companies looking to become AI powerhouses, and generative AI services like ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Perplexity, and Copilot, being widely adopted. ChatGPT, for example, gained 100 million monthly active users in just two months after its launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer internet application in history. For reference, Facebook, the most popular social media platform (with three billion active monthly users) reached the same milestone in four years and six months.

Consider the implications

Businesses are drawn to these new trends because of the promise of increased efficiency, competitive advantage and cost reduction. But, whenever new tech is rapidly adopted, there is inflated expectation – and this means the C-suite has to carefully consider the implications.

The typical ‘hype cycle’ for technologies like AI follows a predictable pattern of inflated expectations, disillusionment, and eventual practical applications – as exemplified by 3D printing. So, product managers must rigorously evaluate the real-world value and use cases of these hyped technologies, prioritizing the resolution of actual problems over blind adoption.

Employ a strategic approach

With new technological innovations, there is a need for strategic thinking and planning. Businesses need to carefully assess the potential impact, costs, and benefits before committing time, money, and resources.

A lack of a comprehensive strategy can cause lasting damage. It’s been estimated that inefficient decision-making can cost Fortune 500 companies 530,000 days (about 1,451 years) of a manager's time each year, equaling around $250 million in annual wages.

The use of strategic frameworks, like the Gartner Hype Cycle allows product managers to align their development efforts with technology maturity and business expectation. It helps businesses to understand the progression of technology, from introduction to adoption, with the cycle divided into five phases, and each phase representing a stage in the technology's lifecycle.

Ensure there will be a positive business impact

Technologies appraised in the ‘innovation trigger’ phase can then be considered for proof of concepts (PoCs) to ensure they have a positive business impact, whilst those in the ‘slope of enlightenment’ phase may already have a proven use case that can be integrated into a product.

Implementing a strategic approach allows businesses to focus on long-term, sustainable technologies, with measurable return on investment. Opportunities providing a competitive edge can be identified, while avoiding short-term hype and mitigating the risks associated with premature adoption.

Ask the right questions

Product managers can use frameworks like the Hype Cycle to better manage stakeholders, set realistic timelines, and distribute resources to fit within a product’s innovation strategy. By asking the right questions, it’s then easier to navigate the complexities of technological advancements and market dynamics, allowing PMs to decide whether innovative technologies will go beyond the hype and align with their long-term business goals and end-user needs.